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Oil futures surged to a new record high of $70.85 on August 30 last August, a day after Hurricane Katrina, which flooded the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States. Although oil prices fell in subsequent weeks, it is worth studying the rise in commodity prices and the specter of inflation on binary options effects especially for the US dollar.
Traditional demand and supply factors certainly contributed to the upward trend in long-term energy prices. The demand side of this equation faced increasing pressure this year with a focus on rapid economic growth and the consequent increase of oil demand in both China and India. Yet the recent jump in oil prices mainly can be attributed to speculation on this hurricane, especially in the futures market as well as limited and the concentration of refining capacity in the United States on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
Economic data released in recent weeks begun to reflect the effects of natural hurricanes such as Katrina and Rita, which swept through the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States during the months of August and September last two. These data reinforced the belief the US Federal and who sees that the economy is growing at an accelerated pace and then the inflation, not recession, supposed to be the subject of concern.
Employment for the month of September, data showed the first net loss in the number of jobs since May 2003, but the decline during the month to 35,000 jobs was less than market expectations. The consumer price index for the same month showed the biggest monthly rise in nearly 25 years. Nevertheless, when you remove the fuel components and volatile food, inflation would have then been average rose up to 0.1%, a figure which is lower than market expectations as well as being likely that rising fuel prices have not been translated yet in basic reading of the levels of inflation.
Similarly, the producer price index in September has exceeded previous forecasts, the biggest monthly increase in nearly 15 years. Nevertheless, Vmojadda when you remove the price of fuel and food commodities see that wholesale prices rose by a relative 0.3%. Yet the basic version of this producer prices surpassed his previous forecast, and therefore one can conclude that the rise in energy prices beginning to weigh on prices at the wholesale level and that it does not prepare a matter of time before it is passed these price increases on to consumers. Retail sales that came in below expectations as well as a decline in consumer confidence indicators for the lowest level in nearly 13 years, it is likely that the rise in energy prices is already starting to weigh on US consumer sentiment. And thus it will be the question is for how they will transfer this focus in the retail sector, especially with the approaching holiday season, which is one of the main topics of focus on Wall Street.
After becoming the word “inflation” in circulation on everyone’s lips these days, we expect the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy. Fed to raise interest rate to borrow through September by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the eleventh consecutive increase since June, 2004. It is expected to see the latest in October or at least the additional 25 basis point rise will be adopted in the period from November to December arrivals.
Rising interest rates in the United States in parallel with the growth of the US economy were the driving force behind foreign flows towards the US Treasury bonds and the stock market, respectively. These flows are translated in the form of demand for the US dollar which maintained a strong greenback during September and October. While we can emphasize that the stock market at this stage seems a bit weak, the different image to the interest rates are supposed to make the dollar attractive currency until the end of this year.
Rising interest rates and fears of inflation can no longer be limited to the political or in the United States and the finance ministers in the Group of Twenty-makers, which includes some of the major industrialized countries and some developing countries, who are expected to hold a meeting in Beijing this month. According to the Aaron’s Profit Suite statement, which was issued on the thirteenth of October last October, the rise in oil prices “could increase inflationary pressures and lead to a slowdown in economic growth as well as the instability of the global economy,” this scenario is assumed that the US dollar is also supported because it is in times of economic uncertainty, the The dollar coin, which is the “safe haven” attracts large flows him. While you may see other countries may begin to restrict its monetary policy, the US interest rates are expected to remain high in the near future.
The latest move by the dollar yen, the highest level 115 bode well for the US dollar for additional gains within the region 118/20. On the other hand, the bottoms of July for the euro to $ 1.1868 from all supposed to have been below the fracture to stimulate further dollar gains against the European currency. This step may be conveyed attention toward the bottoms of the year 2004 at 1.1759 – 78 initially but the expectations flowing toward Show sharp decline towards 1.1500.
In times of inflationary pressures, the US dollar tends to decline against commodity currencies. Commodity currencies are currencies of countries that have achieved the bulk of its export revenues through sales of primary commodities. Among the most prominent examples of liquid commodity currencies the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.
The dollar record lows in some 17-year high against the Canadian dollar with the enormous rise in oil and metal prices. Although the US dollar has recovered from the current lows, the recent gains are still within the scope of corrective and then it would be likely continuation of a long-term downtrend for the movement of the US dollar Canadian dollar. Similarly, the husband Australian dollar US dollar and the New Zealand dollar the US dollar are still in consolidation without significant resistance lines of phase with expectations to see further gains in the short and medium term.
At some point, the domestic inflation and the rise in the US dollar will repacking attention towards the US balance of trade deficit and also the balance of payments. This is because US goods and services become more expensive with the rising dollar and therefore consumers both inside and outside the country will begin in the event for Everything Else more licenses. This is the main reason behind our belief that the US stock in a weak position at the current stage. Downside risks in the stock market will certainly result in a negative impact for the flows towards the US dollar and thus the long-term downward trend in the dollar likely will re-impose himself.
The conventional wisdom in the field of financial services indicate that the allocation of between 5 to 10% of the investment portfolio of the merchant in alternative investments such as those offered by the CFC would be desirable to achieve the necessary diversity and investor protection from unfavorable movements in the traditional asset class.
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